Polling data for the Texas U.S. Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton shows a tight contest, with three polls indicating Talarico leads and one showing a tie, while another three suggest Paxton holds an edge. The average margin across polls places Talarico ahead by 0.7 percentage points.
Republican Senator Mike Lee of Utah has urged conservatives to support Paxton, citing Talarico’s “extreme” positions: “Now is the time for every Republican to support Ken Paxton. We can’t have a senator from Texas who thinks ‘God is nonbinary.’”
Paxton recently defeated incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff after receiving Donald Trump’s endorsement. Analysis by the Decision Desk election group noted Talarico has performed more strongly against Paxton than Beto O’Rourke did when he sought to unseat Republican Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018, a race O’Rourke lost.
Paxton accused Talarico of violating residency rules during his 2022 campaign for state representative, stating: “James Talarico has proven he has zero regard for Texans and the rule of law. He’s been lying to voters and shamelessly committing election fraud to hold onto power.” The Talarico campaign denied the allegations, attributing discrepancies to processing delays.
Stu Burguiere, a political commentator, noted that prediction markets once had Paxton as an 80% favorite but have dropped to 54%. “Personally, I think there’s value there because I expect Paxton to improve his standing once the average John Cornyn voter starts thinking about control of the Senate going to the Democrats. Angry primary fights tend to fade as we get closer to November,” he said.
Democrats have a slim chance of winning the U.S. Senate in the midterms, but a victory in Texas would significantly bolster their prospects.
